According to a recent study published in The Lancet HIV journal by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the world has made progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS, but is not yet on course to reach the ambitious 2030 targets set by the United Nations AIDS program (UNAIDS).

The study examined the global, regional, and national impact of HIV/AIDS in 204 countries from 1990 to 2021, and made predictions through to 2050. It identified both significant achievements and persistent challenges in the global war against this deadly epidemic.

From 2010 to 2021, new HIV infections fell from 2.1 million to 1.7 million, while HIV-related deaths dropped from 1.2 million to 718,000. However, the study revealed regional disparities in the response to HIV, indicating that the world is not on course to achieve UNAIDS’ 2030 objective of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.

Sub-Saharan Africa is leading the world in reducing both new HIV infections and deaths from the disease. This region has seen a 60% decrease in lifetime HIV risk since 1995, contributing significantly to the global decline in HIV rates. Furthermore, the number of people in this region with unsuppressed HIV levels decreased from 19.7 million in 2003 to 11.3 million in 2021.

Conversely, in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, the lifetime risk of HIV increased between 1995 and 2021, and the number of people with unsuppressed HIV levels rose from 310,000 in 2003 to 680,000 in 2021.

Despite significant strides in reducing new HIV infections and deaths, the world looks set to fall short of UNAIDS’ 2030 goals. While the number of people living with HIV is projected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039 and then slowly decrease to 43.4 million by 2050, sustained efforts are needed to optimize prevention methods, improve access to antiretroviral therapy, and broaden HIV testing availability.

In some regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East, increases in HIV cases and related deaths are expected. In these areas, only 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 50% have access to antiretroviral treatment, and just 45% have suppressed the virus effectively.

To invigorate the global HIV response, the study suggests strengthening public health programs dedicated to HIV control, such as the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), and expanding prevention services with a range of current and emerging technologies. Effective and equitable implementation of interventions and care delivery models is also needed, with a focus on measuring progress and addressing remaining gaps.

The findings from this study serve as a call to action for governments, healthcare providers, and the global community to reaffirm their commitment to ending the HIV epidemic. A sustained, comprehensive, and equitable effort is required to reach the UNAIDS 2030 targets and ultimately eliminate HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.