Despite common belief that the rate of global crop production has plateaued in recent years, a thorough study on global food output has determined that it has consistently increased at a steady pace since the 1960s. This was the conclusion reported by John Baffes of the World Bank and Xiaoli Etienne of the University of Idaho, U.S., in their research published on November 27, 2024, in the open-access journal PLOS ONE.
As the world’s population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050, the significance of agricultural production in feeding the global populace cannot be overstated. Over the past sixty years, technological advancements have largely driven food production growth, leading to the creation and use of superior crop breeds. However, other studies have proposed that this growth has reached a plateau, prompting worries about future food supply, particularly in lower-income nations experiencing rapid population growth.
In their recent research, Baffes and Etienne created uniform measures of production and yield for 144 crops, which cover 98 percent of the world’s agricultural land. These standardized measures enable scientists and policymakers to compare agricultural productivity across diverse countries and regions. Contrary to the notion of a slowdown, the researchers found that the worldwide growth of crop yields has remained steady over the past six decades. Any perceived slowdown in particular crops, regions, or countries was balanced by increases elsewhere. Their findings indicate that crop yields have annually grown at a rate equivalent to roughly 33 kg of wheat per hectare.
While these findings provide a sense of relief regarding global food supply, the researchers warn that ensuring sustainable food production and affordable food prices will remain significant challenges to worldwide food security. They stress that these issues are of particular importance considering the escalating impact of climate change and the rising demand for food due to population and income growth.
The authors concluded: “Our use of a comprehensive, calorie-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, reveals that global yield growth – a key indicator of agricultural productivity – has remained steady over the past six decades. This consistent growth translates to an annual increase of approximately 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, underscoring ongoing productivity enhancements worldwide.”
